Forum:2017-18 Australian Region cyclone season
Betting pools for this page Related Pages: *2017-18 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season (Betting pools) *2017-18 South Pacific cyclone season (Betting pools) November TCWC Jakarta Tropical Low (93S.INVEST) The first invest of the season is here (I think). It's currently in TCWC Jakarta's region and I doubt it will become anything significant. ~ Steve Talk Page 02:49, November 10, 2017 (UTC) :There was one in August, but this forum wasn't created yet. However, this one is much weaker and probably won't be anything. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 11:43, November 10, 2017 (UTC) 02U.CEMPAKA 95S.INVEST New one up on Tropical Tidbits/NRL located just south of Jakarta. ~ Steve Talk Page 03:13, November 20, 2017 (UTC) This looks like something we'll have to watch. Models spin it up into a pretty strong cyclone in a couple days. Hilda anyone? - Garfield : Now low chance on JTWC. This has some real potential to be Hilda. Here comes the first TC of the SHem season! ~ Steve Talk Page 21:08, November 21, 2017 (UTC) : Off JTWC, but still active as an invest. ~ Steve �� Happy 19:49, November 23, 2017 (UTC) : On JWTC again as ~~Low chances~~ JoeBillyBob (talk) 12:28, November 26, 2017 (UTC) Code yellow again. ~ Steve Talk Page 03:05, November 26, 2017 (UTC) !CODE RED!(ON JTWC)!WARNING! JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:22, November 27, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Cempaka aaaaaand its here and not expected to develop further. JoeBillyBob (talk) 05:05, November 29, 2017 (UTC) :This is the first TCWC Jakarta system since Bakung of December 2014. Not very often do we see storms here. Anyway this should remain weak. ~ Steve Talk Page 22:18, November 27, 2017 (UTC) :actually,the latest bulletin from TCWC Jakarta says it;s going to intensify to 45 knots or more JoeBillyBob (talk) 12:06, November 28, 2017 (UTC) ::Not too bad for a TCWC Jakarta storm so far. Hi!- 14:34, November 28, 2017 (UTC) :::Wikipedia reports that the cyclone has already caused 11 fatalities. :( ~ Steve Talk Page 23:37, November 28, 2017 (UTC) ::::JTWC just cancelled their TCFA. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:46, November 29, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Depression Cempaka Oh well.Congrats on being the earliest named storm since 2013 and the earliest TCWC named storm since 2007! JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:02, November 29, 2017 (UTC) Remnants of Cempaka Has been dropped by TCWC Jakarta, and TCWC Perth doesn't expect much redevelopment. JTWC has also dropped it. ~ Steve Talk Page 21:47, November 29, 2017 (UTC) 03U.DAHLIA 96S.INVEST Code yellow on JTWC and located west of Sumatra. ~ Steve �� Happy 19:49, November 23, 2017 (UTC) :Now orange. ~ Steve Talk Page 03:05, November 26, 2017 (UTC) : Tropical Low 03U Now numbered as "03U". Also TCWC Jakarta forecasts it to intensify into a C1 tropical cyclone. Could we already see Dahlia? Two TCWC Jakarta named storms within the span of a week would be insane, considering how inactive it usually is there. ~ Steve Talk Page 23:37, November 28, 2017 (UTC) There is a TCFA on JTWC now. JoeBillyBob (talk) 07:07, November 29, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Dahlia And so we do. I wonder if this made the record books for the most active start to the TCWC area of responsibility. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] My Birthday 20:51, November 29, 2017 (UTC) Sadly,I think 2001-02 did better. JoeBillyBob (talk) 21:21, November 29, 2017 (UTC) :That was in the span of a whole season, not two days. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] My Birthday ::This is actually the first time there have been 2 or more TCWC Jakarta named systems during the whole season since they took over the region in 2007. Even stranger, it's within the span of a week! :O Obviously the most active start in TCWC Jakarta records dating to 2007. Current intensity of Dahlia is 40 mph/998 mbars. ~ Steve Talk Page 21:47, November 29, 2017 (UTC) :::Ikr. That was the strangest thing that had ever happened to this basin. Hi!- 14:33, November 30, 2017 (UTC) ::::Yep, it surely is. Current intensity is 50 mph/993 mbars. TCWC Perth forecasts a C3 (Australian scale) cyclone. ~ Steve Talk Page 02:32, December 1, 2017 (UTC) ::::Now 60 mph and a category 2,according to TCWC's darwin and perth. JoeBillyBob (talk) 08:36, December 1, 2017 (UTC) :::::Downgraded to a Category 1, 40 mph/996 mbar. Hi!- 18:43, December 2, 2017 (UTC) ::::::And expected to weaken further. At least it is staying out to sea and never harmed anyone, unlike the deadly Cempaka and Ockhi... ~ Steve Talk Page 01:09, December 3, 2017 (UTC) Ex-Tropical Cyclone Dahlia Just after writing the above post, I checked BOM and it has unexpectedly dissipated. Might reintensify to a C1 though. ~ Steve Talk Page 01:27, December 3, 2017 (UTC) : Actually I don't think that materialized. Now not expected to redevelop. ~ Steve Talk Page 02:00, December 5, 2017 (UTC) TCWC Darwin Tropical Low there is another tropical low in the Australian basin. JoeBillyBob (talk) 00:24, November 25, 2017 (UTC) :In the Banda Sea and not expected to develop. ~ Steve Talk Page 03:10, November 26, 2017 (UTC) :long dead.... JoeBillyBob (talk) 22:53, November 29, 2017 (UTC) December Tropical Low west of the Timor Sea (97S.INVEST) Another one expected to move southwest into roughly where Dahlia is supposed to be now. Not going to develop though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:01, December 1, 2017 (UTC) : Yeah, it won't develop tbh. And it appears to have been invested, because 97S is up in this region on Tropical Tidbits. ~ Steve Talk Page 01:10, December 3, 2017 (UTC) :Dead ~ Steve Talk Page 01:58, December 5, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Low south of the Solomon Islands (98P.INVEST) Being monitored on BOM's eastern outlook. See the South Pacific forum for a couple more posts concerning this system. Highly doubt this will become much. ~ Steve Talk Page 01:58, December 5, 2017 (UTC) : It dissipated. Hi!- 14:24, December 6, 2017 (UTC) Timor Sea tropical low Currently on TCWC Darwin and TCWC Jakarta's outlooks. It's doubtful if this will be anything significant, however. ~ Steve �� Happy 06:32, December 24, 2017 (UTC) :Actually, I think I got things mixed up. This might actually have been the below system. ~ Steve �� Happy 21:33, December 26, 2017 (UTC) 02S.HILDA Tropical low just north of the Indonesian Archipelago (92S.INVEST) Not yet a full-fledged tropical low as of the time of this writing. However, it has a decent chance to develop in the long run. TCWC Perth has it up with a "moderate" chance for Tuesday and it could track towards the north Kimberley coast. Hilda, anyone? ~ Steve �� Happy 06:32, December 24, 2017 (UTC) :Actually, Steve, this is supposed to become a 905 mbar C5 by December 26. This will be very significant. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] My Birthday 13:59, December 24, 2017 (UTC) ::BoM gives this a high chance of developing into a TC by 28 December. There again both the GFS and ECMWF don't do too much with this right now, likely due to land interaction. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:24, December 25, 2017 (UTC) :::I feel like we will going to see another destructive cyclone. Hi!- 20:15, December 25, 2017 (UTC) ::::The JTWC has it on code orange. It is Invest 92S as per the JTWC.-- 05:05, December 26, 2017 (UTC) The BOM is forecasting a C1 (Aus. scale) cyclone could come out of this. Land interaction with the region around Broome should prevent this from becoming a monster. And TG, whatever crazy unreliable model you were looking at didn't materialize. There was no way for this system to rapidly develop into a C5 in only 2 days (from the time of your post to today, the 26th). I'd look up more realistic models if I wanted to post about it. ~ Steve �� Happy 21:33, December 26, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Hilda it's here.45 mph/990 mbar.JoeBillyBob (talk) 11:29, December 27, 2017 (UTC) 60 mph/985 mbar,even though it's over land rn.JoeBillyBob (talk) 22:15, December 27, 2017 (UTC) Tropical Low Hilda now a TD.998 mbar/35mph..JoeBillyBob (talk) 09:06, December 28, 2017 (UTC) :Yeah this is going to be gone soon. And Steve, didn't you see the GFS run from December 23? [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] My Birthday 00:36, December 29, 2017 (UTC) ::I don't really check models that often. Surprising that the GFS would forecast such a monster within a short span of time. Anyway, this was a short-lived weak named storm. It was close to land so that was to be expected. It's still on BOM's western region outlook as a tropical low, but otherwise it's dead. ~ Steve �� Happy 06:42, December 29, 2017 (UTC) January 04S.IRVING Tropical Low Southwest of Sumatra Up on BOM's western outlook with a "low" chance on Saturday, before it moves out of region. Might have long run potential though ~ Steve �� 2018 06:43, January 3, 2018 (UTC) 95S.INVEST Now invested, and BOM gives it a "high" chance for Saturday. Code yellow on JTWC, and code red on TCWC Reunion's outlook. This is likely to become Berguitta in the SWIO, unless it suddenly intensifies before then. ~ Steve �� 2018 06:55, January 5, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Irving It has been named as a tropical system before crossing into the SWIO basin. Further comments can be made on that respective forum page. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:57, January 7, 2018 (UTC) 09U.JOYCE Tropical Low 09U Currently in the Timor Sea and expected to move towards the northern Kimberly coast. This has a "high" chance for Wednesday, and could be a candidate for Joyce. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:57, January 7, 2018 (UTC) :Yep, I think you're right. This could become Joyce and then cross into SWIO. GFS brings it to 955-960 millibars while in the SWIO. It could at least become a C3 (Aus) before crossing out of the basin. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 22:03, January 8, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Joyce Now a category 1 system according to BOM, and affecting the area between Broome and Port Hedland. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 04:47, January 12, 2018 (UTC) Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Joyce Died off three days ago. Hi!- 14:33, January 17, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Low east of Christmas Island Although mentioned on BOM's western outlook, it is very doubtful that this will develop. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:57, January 7, 2018 (UTC) :Apparently it dissipated. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 22:05, January 8, 2018 (UTC) : Trough near Coco Islands Has a "Low" chance through the weekend. Very doubtful that this will develop, though. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 04:47, January 12, 2018 (UTC) :Long dead. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 00:03, January 20, 2018 (UTC) 11L.NONAME 90P/90S.INVEST Located near Top End, but strangely has two invest designations. According to BOM, the risk for a tropical cyclone increases for northern Western Australia next week. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 00:03, January 20, 2018 (UTC) currently at a pressure of 999 hPa...I think.JoeBillyBob (talk) 06:18, January 22, 2018 (UTC) pretty much dead,and expected to stay well inland. :Yep, this won't develop anymore. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 05:50, January 28, 2018 (UTC) ::Actually, JTWC put this up as code yellow. It's doubtful that this will move back out to sea and develop though. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:16, January 29, 2018 (UTC) ::Moving back out to seaa with a code yellow.JoeBillyBob (talk) 20:22, January 29, 2018 (UTC) ::: Off of JTWC for a while now. And I already posted that JTWC had it up as code yellow at that time. Unfortunately, this tropical low was worse than Hilda and Joyce. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 21:36, February 3, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Low east southeast of the Cocos Islands Currently on BOM's western outlook as a tropical low in a monsoon trough, but highly unlikely to develop. It's expected to drift towards the Cocos Islands. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 00:03, January 20, 2018 (UTC) : Dead. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 03:04, January 22, 2018 (UTC) GFS low (92P.INVEST) currently only on tropical tidbits. Off the east coast with a 'Moderate' chance for sunday.JoeBillyBob (talk) 17:11, January 27, 2018 (UTC) :If I'm getting it right, this is now TC 08P/06F in the SPac. See that basin forum for more information regarding this system. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 05:54, January 28, 2018 (UTC) 96P.INVEST BOM is giving this a "moderate" chance for Thursday. The risk for a TC increases in this area in the near future due to a strengthening monsoon flow. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:19, January 29, 2018 (UTC) Code Yellow on jtwc.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:36, February 1, 2018 (UTC) :No longer on JTWC. TCWC Wellington is actually calling this system "Tropical depression 96P". Extremely unlikely to develop further though. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:23, February 2, 2018 (UTC) February 99P.INVEST BOM's eastern outlook says that a tropical low may form here. TC development is somewhat possible this weekend, with a "low" chance for Friday and Saturday. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 01:19, February 8, 2018 (UTC) : It's now a "very low" chance and won't develop anymore. Goodbye failed invest. For the record, this invest was in the Coral Sea region. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:35, February 12, 2018 (UTC) 17U.KELVIN 91P/S.INVEST Currently in TCWC Darwin's area of responsibility. Pressure is 1007 mb. It's expected to move towards the Kimberly coast in the coming days, with a low chance of development for Wednesday and Thursday. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:38, February 12, 2018 (UTC) Has two invest designations,but has a code orange on JTWC and a moderate chance for Friday.No.1 Mobile (talk) 00:35, February 14, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Low 17U Now designated by BOM, and has a "high" chance of development starting Friday (western region outlook). Code orange on JTWC. Here comes Kelvin! ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:49, February 14, 2018 (UTC) :Not developing.here's hoping it doesn't bust.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:36, February 17, 2018 (UTC) ::It’s about to make landfall in Australia. Not going to be named though. -- 04:25, February 17, 2018 (UTC) :::It's not moving that quickly, landfall is more than 24 hours away. Which means, unfortunately, it will have time to intensify. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:36, February 17, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Kelvin Named. Turns out my earlier post was wrong, landfall is around 12 hours away. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:09, February 17, 2018 (UTC) :It has now intensified into a category 2 cyclone in 10-min mean. -- 23:26, February 17, 2018 (UTC) ::Intensified into a category 1-equivalent cyclone over land. (1 min winds) Fr3d (talk) 03:14, February 18, 2018 (UTC) :::It looks like it's still going...--Isaac829 03:44, February 18, 2018 (UTC) :::: Kelvin is still maintaining and organizing a well-defined eye on land, strange... Fr3d (talk) 05:04, February 18, 2018 (UTC) ::::: Still looks unusually organized and defined for a storm that had made landfall. Xyklone (talk) 06:01, February 18, 2018 (UTC) ::::::According to JTWC Dvorak estimates hit T5.0 just before landfall. Wow. And BoM even claims that it's satellite presentation over land is better than it ever was over water. ~ KN2731 {talk} 07:12, February 18, 2018 (UTC) That is because of the brown ocean effectSwirling Magnetar (talk) 15:47, February 18, 2018 (UTC) back down to C1 but weakening much slower than anticipated.No.1 Mobile (talk) 03:13, February 19, 2018 (UTC) Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kelvin No longer has gales extending 3/4 around the centre, but still has 10-min winds of 35 knots. Thankfully Kelvin made landfall in a very sparsely populated area, so there weren't any fatalities or severe damage. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:09, February 19, 2018 (UTC) : That's good, I thought that this system could have been something significant or devastating for the region. Luckily that wasn't the case. I haven't posted on Kelvin while it was tropical because I was busy. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 00:19, February 22, 2018 (UTC) ::Okay ignore the "no damage" bit, Broome and surrounding areas still got hit pretty badly by Kelvin's rainbands. Also Kelvin's remnants somehow managed to traverse the entire mainland and only recently exited through the Great Australian Bight. The now extratropical system is still alive and kicking. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:20, February 23, 2018 (UTC) :::Lol wow. I've also heard about Kelvin's slow weakening and "brown ocean effect" stunt while over Australia, which I thought seemed a bit strange. Sucks that it was quite damaging... ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 23:30, February 23, 2018 (UTC) March 95P.INVEST Currently over Queensland, but only on Tropical Tidbits for the moment. I doubt significant development will occur out of this, especially due to land interaction. ~ Steve ❄ Talk Page 06:02, March 1, 2018 (UTC) 98P.INVEST low chance according to TCWC Darwin.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:46, March 6, 2018 (UTC) Code yellow on jtwc.No.1 Mobile (talk) 00:05, March 7, 2018 (UTC) According to JTWC, its 98P instead of 95P. Idk if its the same system as 95P, but it was considered a low chance of forming for a couple of days. If its the same sysytem, then one of you can remove the 98P heading. Nevertheless, I doubt its gonna develop into a tropical depression. --'Roy25' 00:35, March 7, 2018 (UTC) Now dead. Roy25 21:04, March 9, 2018 (UTC) 10F.LINDA 90P.INVEST New invest up on Tropical Tidbits located JUST west of 160W, and thus is still in this basin. I think this one is up with a "low" chance on BOM's eastern outlook (TCWC Brisbane) for Monday and Tuesday. ~ Steve Talk Page 05:48, March 10, 2018 (UTC) : Coded orange by the JTWC, but is this invest in this basin or the SPac basin? --'Roy25' 23:53, March 11, 2018 (UTC) ::This basin because it's currently located at 159.8E, which is just a tad bit west of the basin separation line (160E) between the Australian Region and SPac. Anyway, it's now "Moderate" on TCWC Brisbane for Tuesday, but drops back to "Low" for Wednesday. ~ Steve Talk Page 01:14, March 12, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Low 10F Now designated as Tropical Low 10, or TC 13. --'Roy25' 22:01, March 12, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Linda Now named.No.1 Mobile (talk) 14:48, March 13, 2018 (UTC) :It’s going to face the same fate as Fehi. Xyklone (talk) 17:37, March 13, 2018 (UTC) ::Dead according to Wikipedia, but still alive according to JTWC. --'Roy25' 01:36, March 14, 2018 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Linda I'm pretty sure its now post tropical at this point. --'Roy25' 16:08, March 14, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Low (Arafura Sea) "Low" chance for Tuesday, and up on BOM's northern outlook (TCWC Darwin). ~ Steve Talk Page 05:48, March 10, 2018 (UTC) :Now "Low" for Wednesday, but "Very Low" before then. If it remains over water, conditions are favorable for development in the long run. ~ Steve Talk Page 01:15, March 12, 2018 (UTC) : :Now a "Moderate" chance for sunday.No.1 Mobile (talk) 22:28, March 15, 2018 (UTC) 22U.MARCUS 92S.INVEST North of Australia coded orange on the JTWC. --'Roy25' 01:34, March 14, 2018 (UTC) Now has a "High" chance on TCWC Darwin.No.1 Mobile (talk) 04:27, March 15, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Low 22U Will develop in the next 12h.No.1 Mobile (talk) 14:12, March 15, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Marcus It's her.No.1 Mobile (talk) 03:25, March 16, 2018 (UTC) : This is going to get strong over the long run. After it leaves land and moves out into the Indian, BOM forecasts a C3 (Aus. scale) cyclone. JTWC is taking it to a whopping 120 knots (140 mph) by the 21st. ~ Steve ☘ Happy St. 22:50, March 16, 2018 (UTC) ::Already a Cat 2 on the AUS Scale? Wow this thing is rapidly intensifying! --'Roy25' Happy St. Patrick's Day!!! 23:23, March 16, 2018 (UTC) :::And it could get much stronger next week. :) ~ Steve ☘ Happy St. 23:36, March 16, 2018 (UTC) ::::Downgraded to a Cat 1 AUS Scale cyclone. --'Roy25' Happy St. Patrick's Day!!! 15:25, March 17, 2018 (UTC) :::::And back up to Cat 2 AUS scale cyclone. --'Roy25' Happy St. Patrick's Day!!! 18:10, March 17, 2018 (UTC) ::::::Look at this Crazy Model Run from today.No.1 Mobile (talk) 00:15, March 18, 2018 (UTC) :::::::Wtf, this model brings this to 858 mbar in 108 hours from now?!! That would make it the most intense tropical cyclone in history! Hope that doesn't happen. --'Roy25' Happy St. Patrick's Day!!! 00:20, March 18, 2018 (UTC) ::::::::As long as this storm stays out at sea, I'd like to see this storm try to get that strong. By this point, the GFS forecasts a 910 millibar pressure. [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 01:44, March 19, 2018 (UTC) :::::::::I doubt Marcus is gonna go as strong as the models indicates. --'Roy25' 02:04, March 19, 2018 (UTC) Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus Finally.At least one storm actually became one.No.1 Mobile (talk) 11:57, March 19, 2018 (UTC) :Wow, this storm is becoming stronger, but I still doubt it's gonna go as strong as the models indicates. --'Roy25' 13:11, March 19, 2018 (UTC) : :Jumped to a Category 4.No.1 Mobile (talk) 19:23, March 19, 2018 (UTC) ::Oh hell naa, this storm better slow down. Now this time I won't be suprised of a Cat 5 AUS scale cyclone appearing from Marcus. But I still doubt that this storm will reach in the 800s mbar as one of the models states. --'Roy25' 22:04, March 19, 2018 (UTC) :::Woah, it's getting really powerful. It currently looks awesome on satellite imagery! Expected to intensify to a peak of 140 knots (160 mph) according to JTWC, and they also currently have it as the equivalent of a C3 SSHWS cyclone (105 knots/120 mph). Thankfully Marcus is doing this all out to sea (even if it did cause impacts in its earlier life). ~ Steve Talk Page 05:56, March 20, 2018 (UTC) Hate to be the bearer of bad news Steve, but Marcus is expected to recurve southeast after he peaks and he could be a serious threat to southwestern Australia, particularly around Perth, like Cyclone Alby was back in April 1978. The current JTWC forecast retracted their category 5 forecast from before, but still makes Marcus a powerful 155 mph category 4 storm (5 on their scale) and recurves him southeast in a rapid motion towards the area around Perth in southwestern Australia. This may be something to watch out for down the road in that area. Ryan1000 10:38, March 20, 2018 (UTC) :Hopefully Marcus will have weakened significantly by that time, wind shear and cooling sea temperatures should bring it down quickly once it passes 20°S. But for now Marcus's tiny eye appears to be clearing out, and those cloud tops are really cold. I won't be surprised if Marcus reaches C5 on both scales in the next 24 hours. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:42, March 20, 2018 (UTC) :Update: latest from BoM says that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway. Which is kind of expected given how small Marcus's eye is. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:03, March 20, 2018 (UTC) ::Well, he's now a Cat 4 SSHWS cyclone, with a 1-min winds of 130 mph. And not related to this, but a snowstorm is gonna arrive here in NYC (like the fourth snowstorm this month), and no school for tomorrow, and I've got a quiz tomorrow lol. Anyways back on topic, it does seem that Marcus would recurve back to Australia, so he needs to weaken first. --'Roy25' 22:31, March 20, 2018 (UTC) :: ::Cat 5 AUS scale.125mph/939 mbar.No.1 Mobile (talk) 02:07, March 21, 2018 (UTC) :::Wow, and we can only hope that he doesn't further intensify if he chooses to make a curve towards Western Australia. --'Roy25' 02:46, March 21, 2018 (UTC) ::::Marcus is still intensifying. Amazing. 10-min winds at 115 knots, and 1-min winds at 130 knots (though looks like 140 knots). ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:16, March 21, 2018 (UTC) :::::1-min winds now at 155 mph, he's now right at the doorsteps of Cat 5 SSHWS cyclone. --'Roy25' 16:19, March 21, 2018 (UTC) ::::::1-min winds down to 150 mph, but he can still go to Cat 5 SSHWS cyclone. --'Roy25' 18:20, March 21, 2018 (UTC) :::::::Upgraded to a Cat 5 SSHWS cyclone not long after I posted my post above. --'Roy25' 18:55, March 21, 2018 (UTC) ::::::: :::::::Now 140mph/921 mbar,making it the strongest storm since Georges in 2006/07.No.1 Mobile (talk) 19:05, March 21, 2018 (UTC) 145/916 mbar,but likely at its peak intensity.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:14, March 22, 2018 (UTC) Just 3 more mbars and he can surpass last year's Irma. Could happen, but hope not. He should weaken as he curves back towards Australia. --'Roy25' 01:51, March 22, 2018 (UTC) 10-min winds 125 knots, 1-min winds 140 knots, pressure 914 mbars. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:37, March 22, 2018 (UTC) :Weakened recently to a category 4.No.1 Mobile (talk) 19:55, March 22, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Marcus (2nd time) Weakened to a Cat 2 AUS scale cyclone. --'Roy25' 02:51, March 24, 2018 (UTC) :Not to mention, Marcus is now among the top 10 most intense Australian cyclones in recorded history, tied with the deadly Cyclone Mahina of 1899 in 5th place (9th according to Wikipedia but that's cause even though they are tied, Wikipedia still considers the storms a separate rank, thus the reason why some ranks were skipped). --'Roy25' 02:55, March 24, 2018 (UTC) ::This became an absolute BEAST! 145 mph (10-min)/914 mbars was a lot. Now that it's weakening, it's time to bid farewell. The JTWC forecast track seems to be taking the system much offshore Perth, so I doubt it will be very destructive for the area. This was also unfortunately the worst storm since Tracy in 1974 to strike Darwin. ~ Steve Talk Page 05:43, March 24, 2018 (UTC) Post-Tropical Storm Marcus Now a remnant low, and final warning issued by JTWC. This storm now one of the most intense Australian cyclone in recorded history, and like Steve said, the worst in Darwin since 1974's Tracy. --'Roy25' 14:55, March 24, 2018 (UTC) 23U.NORA Has a gradually increasing chance for development, going up to "high" by Friday (TCWC Darwin). It's currently located in the northeastern Arafura Sea. Maybe another powerful one in the form of "Nora"? ~ Steve Talk Page 06:01, March 20, 2018 (UTC) :Given that this is forecast to make landfall somewhere in northwestern Queensland at peak intensity I don't want future Nora to get too strong. Unfortunately quite a few of the major models beg to differ. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:57, March 20, 2018 (UTC) ::Now on JTWC with a low chance of forming. --'Roy25' 22:16, March 20, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Low 23U Should form and become a category 3 before hitting land.No.1 Mobile (talk) 10:59, March 21, 2018 (UTC) :Now coded red on JTWC and TCFA has been issued. Nora is about to arrive! --'Roy25' 19:03, March 21, 2018 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Nora as one storm weakens,another storm strengthens...Fist time since Dahlia we've have two storms simultaneously.No.1 Mobile (talk) 19:55, March 22, 2018 (UTC) :Models shows Nora to strengthen around 940 mbars before landfall. --'Roy25' 22:48, March 22, 2018 (UTC) ::Now a Cat 2 AUS scale cyclone. --'Roy25' 01:56, March 23, 2018 (UTC) Severe Tropical Cyclone Nora that was some rapid intensification.No.1 Mobile (talk) 12:17, March 23, 2018 (UTC) : This storm is looking good on satellite imagery and could briefly intensify into a C4 (Aus. scale). However, Northern Queensland might receive a lot of destruction... ~ Steve Talk Page 05:47, March 24, 2018 (UTC) 96S.INVEST Entered this basin from the SWIO basin, still with a low chance of forming by JTWC. --'Roy25' 14:52, March 24, 2018 (UTC) Retirements at a glance TG's Retirements Cempaka was a notable storm so I guess it won't hurt to begin this now: (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)(Category colors: C1, C2, C3, C4, C5) *'Cempaka': 20% - I really had to put some thought into this one. TCWC Jakarta has not retired a name before, but 41 fatalities were caused by this storm in Indonesia, near the Jakarta area. I am not confident about retirement, but it's still a notable storm, even though it was a failicia. *'Dahlia': 0% - It had the potential to strike Australia as a C3 storm on the Aus scale, but it instead recurved back out to sea and dissipated. *'Hilda': 10% - Like Cempaka, I don't feel confident about retirement, but Australia is very strange with retirements. *'Irving': 0% - Irving didn't even last as a named storm for two days before crossing into the SWIO basin, becoming a slightly more interesting storm there. [[User:TornadoGenius|'T']][[User talk:TornadoGenius|'G']] 2'0'1'8' 22:00, January 8, 2018 (UTC) Steve's Retirement Predictions (see below all the storms for detailed explanations, lists, and colors of all my retirement percentages, storm intensities, and performance grades) Bureau of Meteorology *'Hilda': **Retirement chance: 1% - Not much impact, except for some wind and flooding damage along the coast of Broome. **Performance grade: D''' - Became a C2 and lacked significant impacts. *'''Irving: **Retirement chance: ~0% - Out to sea. **Performance grade: B-''' - Takes into account the stronger SWIO portion of its life. *'''Joyce: **Retirement chance: 10% - Struck the same region that Hilda did, and contributed to a severe flood in Broome. However, Wikipedia reports no damage or deaths. Very small retirement chance due to its role in the floods. **Performance grade: F''' - Just under C2 strength. *'''Kelvin: **Retirement chance: 25% - Worsened the already severe floods in Broome. Some damage was reported. 1/4 retirement chance due to it being the strongest and most notable to strike Australia this season (so far), although it wasn't particularly disastrous. **Performance grade: C+ - Gets credit for keeping intensity over land (the "brown ocean effect"), and for being the strongest of the season so far. *'Linda': **Retirement chance: ~0% - Out to sea. **Performance grade: F''' - A weak fail that barely amounted to much. However, I'd say that 45 mph (10-min) and 993 mbars is just barely enough to prevent me from assigning a "Z". *'''Marcus: **Retirement chance: TBA - It already impacted northern Australia, which could result in at least a small retirement chance. After that, this is just going to stay out to sea. **Performance grade: TBA - Now the strongest of the season. If the current forecasts hold true, this could become a C5. A high grade of at least "A" is going to be assigned at the end. TCWC Jakarta *'Cempaka': **Retirement chance: 50% - Very notable storm with 41 deaths. However, because there's never been a storm name retired by TCWC Jakarta before, I'm only giving it a coin toss. But this was the most devastating storm in TCWC Jakarta's history. **Performance grade: Z''' - A very weak 40 mph/998 mbar failure. *'''Dahlia: **Retirement chance: ~0% - No significant land impacts, despite previously threatening to strike Australia. **Performance grade: D-''' - It reached C2 strength, so it's not a complete fail. TCWC Port Moresby N/A ---- '''Retirement percentage colors: 0%, ~0%''' (lowest possible - non-PAGASA), '''0.01%, 0.5%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 12.5%, 15%, 17.5%''' (halfway between 10 and 25), '''20%', ''25% (1/4 chance), '''30%', 35%, ''37.5% (halfway between 25 and 50), '''40%', 45%, ''50% (1/2 chance), '''55%', 60%, ''62.5% (halfway between 50 and 75), '''65%', 70%, ''75% (3/4 chance), '''80%', 85%, ''87.5% (halfway between 75 and 100), '''90%', 95%, '''''99.9%, ''~100% (highest possible - non-PAGASA), '''100%' *''Italicized'' indicates percentages that are more likely to be used, while some explanations (for why many percentages were chosen to be italicized) are in parentheses. The non-italicized percentages are only used if I can't decide which italicized percentage would be better used for a storm. *The 0% and 100% retirement chances (without the "~" symbol) are only used in the PAGASA (Philippines) basin because it's the only known basin with retirement requirements. These percentages mean that it is absolutely sure that a name will or won't be retired. *This absolute certainty does not exist in other basins. The vast majority of basins don't have retirement requirements, so ~0% and ~100% are the lowest and highest possible retirement chances. "~" means asymptotically equal - which means it is so close to being equal that it is basically, well, "equal". ~0% means that the chance of retirement could be as low as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning within the span of one minute. Same rules go for ~100%, but this time it's the chance that it won't be retired that is insanely tiny. ---- Intensity colors: C1, C2, C3, C4, C5 (up to 156 mph), C5 (≥157 mph) *All use the Australian scale. *Dark red's lower limit is chosen because that's the point when a SPac storm becomes an official C5 on both this scale and the SSHWS. ---- Grading colors: A+++(x∞), A++, A+, A', '''A-', '''B+, B', '''B-', '''C+, C', '''C-', '''D+, D', '''D-', '''F, Z''', '''Z-(x∞) *Grading is mainly based on factors such as intensity, longevity, if it defied forecasts (or stayed weaker than expected), how resilient it was, or how unusual it was. For example, a C5 will get a much higher grade than a TS. A storm that lasted 20 days will get a much higher grade than a storm that lasted only 2 days. A storm that becomes a C3 despite top forecasts of only C1 will get a higher grade than a C3 that was originally expected by forecasters to become at least a C4. A storm that fights through a high shear environment will receive a much higher grade than a storm that dies within a low shear environment. Lastly, a storm that forms in March in the Atlantic, regardless of anything else, will receive a much higher grade than comparably intense storms that occur during the main Atlantic season bounds. *Damage and deaths slightly affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole letter, or 3 spots (ex. from A to B or A+++(x∞) to A) if it is one of the costliest or deadliest storms in history. *A+++(x∞) is a strict rating used for only the best of the best. This grade can be summarized as A, and an infinite number of "+" signs following the letter. "x" is used in this grade as a multiplying sign. If a storm receives this grade, it is likely because it broke the most unusual records known to man, became among the most powerful systems known (ex. Patricia '15), lasted a record length of time (John '94 for example), reached a strong intensity during an unusual time of year (ex. a Central Pacific major hurricane in March), defied forecasts in an unprecedented way (ex. a storm that was only forecast to be a TS by even the most aggressive models ends up strengthening to at least a major hurricane), or intensifies in a very hostile environment. Can also be given to storms that do certain things that never happened before, such as a C5 Atlantic fishspinner. *On the other hand, Z-(x∞) is only used for the absolutely most pathetic storms ever. This grade can be summarized as Z, and an infinite number of "-" signs following the letter. "x" is also used in this grade as a multiplying sign. If a storm receives this grade, it is likely because it peaked as a weak TS despite forecasts of at least hurricane strength by even the most conservative models, lasted less than a day from formation to dissipation, died in a very favorable environment, left a hyped up record tied or un-broken (ex. Philippe '17 left the season tied for most consecutive Atlantic hurricanes, and at the same time was a very pathetic storm), or in extreme cases, is the ultimate name-waster because it is determined in post-analysis to have only been a tropical depression instead of a named TS (ex. Gabrielle '13 if it hadn't regenerated). Regular very weak tropical storms that dissipate because they were stuck in a hostile environment their whole lives, or were never expected to surpass TS intensity by even the most aggressive models, do not receive this grade. *Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" instead of "F-" would be best for pathetic fails. ~ Steve Talk Page 01:05, March 11, 2018 (UTC) Roy's Retirement Predictions Might as well add mine in. This time I'm gonna use the intensity colors for my predictions. Intensity colors: C1, C2, C3, C4, C5 Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9%, 10-19%, 20-29%, 30-39%, 40-49%, 50%, 51-59%, 60-69%, 70-79%, 80-89%, 90-99%, 100%, ??? *'Cempaka (45%)' - Caused AUD$93 million in damage and claimed 41 lives. The fact that TCWC Jakarta hadn't retired a name before makes the retirement chance a 20%. *'Dahlia (0%)' - Never affected land and no lives claimed. *'Hilda (1%)' - Minor damage reported and no deaths from this storm. *'Irving (0%)' - Stayed out of land, and also exited the basin and became more intense there. *'Joyce (0.01%)' - Affected Western Austrailia but no damage or deaths reported. *'Kelvin (10%)' - Caused AUD$16 million, and no deaths reported. Has a slight chance of retirement, but this name is staying. *'Linda (0.01%)' - Affected multiple areas but no damage and deaths reported from this storm, so this name is staying, *'MARCUS (50%)' - Considered the worst to strike Darwin since Cyclone Tracy in 1974. But there were no deaths reported and damage is currently unknown. It's retirement chance is going to be a coin-toss from me. *'Nora (???)' - Currently active NOTE: Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps. The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm. --'Roy25' 22:32, March 19, 2018 (UTC)